The World Cup round of 16 gets ugly: Brazil vs. Norway at heavyweight; England will face Mexico at the Azteca

We’ve moved on to the first 16 round of the World Cup run, finally safely entering the world of two big games a day. I don’t know about you, but I feel like the sensory overload has subsided a bit. Round 32 was a ball of candy, treats and treats everywhere you looked. Now we’re into the adult stuff.

Sunday’s action kicks off with a repeat of one of the most memorable matches since France 98, with Norway looking to extend their unbeaten run against Brazil to five games. After that is the big one, a game that already promises to make history even before the ball is kicked. Mexico vs. England at Azteca, that will be a puzzle. Let’s get right into what I’m looking at, shall we?

Gabriel vs. Haaland

If ever there was a game in the World Cup to move to Las Vegas, it was Brazil vs. Norway. Or more accurately, the heavyweight fight Gabriel Magalhaes vs. Erling Haaland. I’ve been told there will be up to 20 other footballers on the field for this one, but they’re actually on the undercard. Arsenal’s Brazilian king against pirates, beat the cyborg from Manchester City in a big event.

Rarely does one of their arguments not create high drama. Despite the bitter animosity between Gabriel and Haaland in previous meetings, the rivalry broke out in 2024, when John Stones scored City’s equaliser, his No 9 feeling compelled to celebrate by clearing the ball after Gabriel’s ball. It was Haaland, however, whose head had gone to the moon. A last-gasp chance for a winner was wasted when he charged into Arsenal’s back line after kicking as if he were a defender in a rush job.

Haaland left the pitch to warn Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta to “be humble.” Arsenal got the last laugh as they went out, Emirates Stadium blaring Kendrick Lamar’s ‘Shut Up’ as they celebrated a 5-1 win over City. Gabriel had earned his point, letting out a cry of joy when Martin Odegaard opened the scoring early on.

All of this sounds like a deep dislike and probably was for a long time. That doesn’t make for the best competitors. You can’t build a narrative about that. These two may hate each other, but dammit, they respect each other too. There may be a touch of Ivan Dragos going to Haaland, but let’s be clear, the Drago of 2026 is doing all kinds of damage if he gets his head in the final minutes of the title race. Haaland and Gabriel, that’s Apollo Creed and Rocky Balboa (give any character to any football player based on your preferences).

And when Gabriel lost his cool and turned his forehead into a butt at the Etihad in April, on a day when it looked like Arsenal had sealed the title race, Haaland stood up. “It’s always like this, a lot of fighting and these kinds of things,” Haaland said afterwards. “What can I say? It’s always good… Maybe, yes, I should have come down, maybe it would be easier, but I didn’t.”

Then again, that time Haaland thought he was picking a broken opponent on the mat after the referee had counted. Little did he know that Arsenal still had a haymaker in him, that with Gabriel avoiding suspension they could win easily. That good deed has been thoroughly punished, he suspects that Haaland will not be in a hospitable mood when they leave today.

Can England’s Pickford rise to the top?

If he starts at the Estadio Azteca, Jordan Pickford will make history, equaling the record of 17 appearances for England at the World Cup held by one of his predecessors between the sticks, Peter Shilton. And then any mention of the Azteca and Shilton produces a reaction of psychological pain to the supporters of England, who, whether they are alive or not, must relive the moment of the Hand of God as clearly as if it were yesterday. It’s certainly one of the most memorable cheats in sports history, but it’s also a big fluke from a goalkeeper. Shilton was seven inches from Diego Maradona when they both stepped up to kick the ball. Even accounting for the shock factor, England’s No.1 should have got there first.

That goalkeeping woes feels important to Pickford at the Azteca given how hard he’s been this summer so far. The lowest point was, DR Congo’s goal in the 32nd round, the keeper’s last of many errors for England when he allowed Brian Cipenga to drive him down in his own area. Most important, however, may have been Croatia’s first goal in the tournament opener, where Pickford got a glove on Martin Baturina’s ball but was unable to clear it into his own net. That’s something you don’t usually see top goalkeepers do.

Or at least it didn’t until this World Cup, a tournament where Pickford, Edouard Mendy and Luca Zidane were among those who struggled with long-range efforts. Former goalkeepers who work in the media such as Joe Hart talk about the problems that the tournament ball, Trionda, causes problems for goalkeepers.

Research led by John Eric Goff at the University of Puget Sound in Tacoma, WA may suggest there may be something to that. When they compared the Trionda to all World Cup balls since 2010, they found that while the tournament ball generally flew more evenly in corners and free kicks than the infamous Jabulani from the 2010 World Cup, it had “more drag” than the other balls tested. Its distance, however, may be shorter than previous balls, which may lead to it being dipped by unsuspecting goalkeepers. At certain speeds and with little or no rotation, those changes can reach 20%. In short, the goalkeeper may go deep expecting the ball to end up in one spot, but Trionda’s reduced range can cause them to put their hand in the wrong spot.

All of that happens before altitude enters the equation. Thomas Tuchel specifically mentioned the flight of the ball as one of the challenges that England must adapt to, in the thin air at 7,352 feet above sea level, the ball will travel faster given that there is less air resistance. So far, Mexico has not been prone to testing goalkeepers from above-average range and has yet to score from outside the box. However, they seem to be gaining from the distance. In 74 home games for which CBS Sports has access to data — friendlies, Gold Cup, Nations League and World Cup qualifiers — Mexico has taken 505 shots from outside the box for an expected goals ratio of 17.4. They have scored 23 goals.

Pickford, however, profiles as a solid blocker from distance in particular. Over the past six seasons in the Premier League, he has saved more than 85.4% of shots taken outside his box. He is an excellent stopper in the box as well. During that same span, no one has blocked more goals than Pickford’s 18.4, a statistic that compares the expected number of goals after a shot to the actual volume of goals allowed.

The England No.1 has a habit of being on top, but that has saved his country more often than it has caused them problems. Given how strong his last season with Everton was, the most obvious conclusion he will get from his World Cup form is that this is just a minor setback. At Azteca, he’ll just hope it’s not him or the ball doing all that.