Why the open race for the Ballon d’Or could be crowned with an unexpected crown
It goes into World CupThe race for the Ballon d’Or seemed to come down to three people: Harry Kane, Michael Oliseagain Kylian Mbappe. But as all three failed to win the tournament, and Kane was not the only one who scored many goals In England Squad, this is an open race for one of the most prestigious awards in the world of soccer. Previously, the award only counted achievements in one calendar year, but from the last edition in 2025, which Ousmane Dembele won, it now covers the entire European regular season, which runs from August 1 to July 31.
Fear not, because Lionel Messi and other leagues that do not follow the European circuit are still eligible for the award as the geographical restrictions on it ended in 2007 — before that, it was an award aimed at footballers based in European leagues. One also does not need to win the World Cup to be eligible for this award, which puts us in a bit of a quandary. If there is no World Cup, these awards would be easy to make sense of, since more teams and players are participating in the competition of continental teams compared to a competition where only 48 teams from around the world can make it.
There are three main pillars used in voting for the Ballon d’Or. Individual performance when using metrics based on statistics, team achievements, which are not available to everyone depending on which competitions the team participates in, then there is class and fair play, which is very dependent and where this award can come out a little, especially if new awards can be created at any time.
Back in 2020, Robert Lewandowski was meant to win the Ballon d’Or, but was canceled due to COVID. But in 2021, he came in second place behind Messi, creating a new award for the striker of the year. Lewandowski won that award in back-to-back seasons, but never received the full award.
There was a monopoly held by Messi and the prize Cristiano Ronaldowho won it 13 times since then Ronaldo’s first in 2008, with only two players, Luka Modric again Karim Benzemabreaking their streak before Messi’s move Inter Miami. Since that move in 2023, Rodri he has won the Ballon d’Or and Dembele has won it too.
Rodri’s win came in what could be considered a down season when it comes to candidates, with Manchester City taking the treble, winning the Premier League, FA Cup, and Champions League, and Spain he also won the European Championship. That year, Vinicius Junior was expected to win, which resulted in Real Madrid to boycott the event. Given that there is no clear front-runner, this is another time when an unlikely winner could rise to the top. Kane is the odds-on favorite at the moment, but given the availability of a striker-specific award, Bayern Munich One could come second in the awards rankings and win the best striker award, where he gets a leg up on Erling Haaland.
This was the first World Cup with Haaland because in Norway to develop as a football force, and there was a star who did not enter the competition Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. I Paris The Saint-Germain man was excellent for club and country, scoring 22 goals, but it wasn’t enough to make up for missing the World Cup. There may be more emphasis on competition, but that won’t change anytime soon.
The top candidates for the Ballon d’Or
All statistics include performances for club and country.
|
Harry Kane |
Bayern Munich |
In England |
65 |
73 |
8 |
81 |
Bundesliga Golden Boot, Bundesliga title, DFB Pokal, German Super Cup, DFB Pokal Golden Boot |
|
Kylian Mbappe |
Real Madrid |
France |
60 |
58 |
13 |
71 |
LaLiga Golden Boot, FIFA World Cup Golden Boot, UEFA Champions League Golden Boot |
|
Lamine Yamal |
Barcelona |
Spain |
57 |
25 |
20 |
45 |
LaLiga, FIFA World Cup, Spanish Super Cup |
|
Lionel Messi |
Inter Miami |
In Argentina |
49 |
45 |
31 |
76 |
MLS Cup, MLS MVP, MLS Golden Boot |
|
Rodri |
Manchester City |
Spain |
46 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
FIFA World Cup |
When you break it down, you can see why Kane would be a prime candidate for this award. He has a lot of goals and assists with 81 and has a lot of individual respect, so that should be done and dusted, right? Well, of course. The Spanish players are not coming together well, Lamine Yamal scored only once in the World Cup and Rodri is suffering from an injury which has been a bad year for Manchester City. With the World Cup title, Kane or Mbappe would have iron cases, but with both playing in the third place match, it opens the door for Lionel Messi.
The Ballon d’Or is not a lifetime achievement award, but it is sometimes considered one. Although Argentina did not win the World Cup, Messi has completely dominated Major League Soccer and scored an absurd goal. Giving up 1.55 goals per game is simply a challenge; there is no way around it. And when there is uncertainty in the race for the Ballon d’Or and Messi is having a statistically decent season, luck favors the Argentine.
The intangibles also begin, as at 39 it could be the last time Messi is eligible for this award. Mbappe and Haaland want to take his shirt, and Yamal is coming. With eight Ballon d’Or to his name, what better time to add a ninth and possibly his last? There are problems with this kind of thinking, but the award is decided by people, so there is no perfect way to explain how the votes are cast. Kane is a worthy winner, especially since the event was in London, but in a field of uncertainty, Messi may rise and demand.
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