Is USMNT’s Folarin Balogun worth all the hype? Will this striker be the difference in the World Cup when compared to Belgium?
One general thing the day of the World Cupthat’s all we ask. It won’t happen. Yes, once again, the impromptu football tournament has delivered the goods and the boy is ready to do so again. Did you think Norway knocking Brazil out of the World Cup, extending their unbeaten run in international football, was a surprise? Well, here comes five goals, two of them penalties, 11 extra minutes and a red card from Mexico 2, England 3, in any other year nailed in a championship game, round these parts on Sunday.
And all that was somehow overshadowed by events off the field, there FIFA has lifted the one-match suspension of Folarin Balogunwho was sent off against Bosnia & Herzegovina but is now free to face Belgium in what is surely the biggest game in USMNT history. Let’s get into that, shall we?
Is Balogun really worth all the hype?
It is difficult to shake the idea that something remarkable must have happened during Folarin Balogun’s career so that his name is not immediately associated with the “unprecedented, mysterious and unforgivable” (as European governing body UEFA put it) decision to put his suspension on ice. CBS News reported Sunday night that President Trump made a phone call to FIFA president Gianni Infantino following the red card, as America sought to mount a campaign to overturn the decision.
The decision, which FIFA did not give reasons for and which is subject to an appeal by the Belgian federation, has already proven to be deeply controversial in the world of football. Infantino’s predecessor Sepp Blatter warned that “football must not become a playground for political power.” The coach of England, Thomas Tuchel, joked that Harry Kane should ask President Trump if he can cancel the red card that Jarrel Quansah received in the victory over Mexico.
As of Monday morning — and Belgium’s request made the situation urgent — Balogun is available to play. One thinks he will. The pressure to prove you are worth it will be great. Is he? In three seasons at Monaco, the 25-year-old has scored 24 goals in Ligue 1, the 14th highest in France’s top flight at the time. He ranks 19th in expected non-penalty goals (npxG) out of 90, 20 when you combine that return with expected assists.
CBS Sports
Last season was Balogun’s best since his move from Arsenal to Arsenal with 13 goals and five Champions League goals, establishing himself as a preferred starter under Sebastien Pocognoli after almost losing his place to Mika Bierith. Balogun has brought in goals but perhaps not much, that green bar of assists totaling just four times provided for his teammates. Balogun has delivered a top-class performance in front of goal and is generally almost average for a striker in all other categories.
Overall, Balogun looks to be a good but not top-class striker in Ligue 1, which is fifth in Europe’s top five leagues. Comparable players in the big leagues might be Lois Openda, who did not make the Belgium team, Moise Kean from Italy or Richarlison who did not play for the Brazil team.
Maybe if he puts on the stars and stripes Balogun is a different player. 30 players have scored 12 goals, including three so far in the World Cup. It is worth noting at this point that even in a small sample size of three games, one of which came to an early conclusion, Balogun’s 0.5 xG is still in line with what he brings at club level. Perhaps that’s because the opponents he’s faced – Bosnia, Australia and Paraguay — are the international equivalent of the Ligue 1 outfits he’s faced for most of his senior career. Good teams, no doubt, but not the kind to change your opinion of him just because he scored three goals.
His teammates would argue that he has more to offer than just goals. After the ban was overturned, Alex Freeman highlighted Balogun’s “physicality” and “restrained game”. “He brings a lot of space, a lot of energy,” he added. You are very pushy too. According to Gradient Sports, he averages 37.1 pressure per 90 minutes. Among the possible starters against Belgium, only Malik Tillman is rated higher. Having a striker who works off the ball is essential to Mauricio Pochettino’s dynamic system. So is the focus up front and ultimately Balogun’s contribution is on the pitch, where he averaged 9.2 penalty box touches per 90 minutes at the World Cup, sixth among all players at the tournament.
It’s just that, again, the sample size was built against opposition unlike those the USMNT might face if they advance. Belgium is at or near the US level, rather than significantly below it. Maybe Balogun is worth all the fuss because he’s better enough than Ricardo Pepi, Haji Wright or a recycled player from elsewhere, that he takes this team from underdogs to underdogs. As the tournament progresses, Balogun’s presence may not matter. He would not change to look at Spain, Portugal or France. The talent difference is overwhelmingly in favor of the USMNT’s opponents. Belgium, however, looked vulnerable defensively and had a back line that could hold their own under the pressure set by the USMNT’s No.9.
If this was a question of playing Balogun due to injury in this game, the answer would be that the US should. Good but not great Ligue 1 strikers are useful for a team at their level. Instead, the questions being asked are whether FIFA has put its thumb on the competition scale at the behest of President Trump, putting “the integrity of the game at risk” (again in UEFA’s words) to give Pochettino a really good center. That’s how the whole world views this action, which puts immeasurable pressure on Balogun to be the difference in what may be the biggest game in USMNT history.
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